The truth about the job market in 2026

There's a topic I've never covered here, and I think it's time I did.

The job market has changed.

I first really noticed it when I posted a job ad online a year ago: I got a huge number of applications.

But above all, I'm noticing something else: there are tasks I would have handed to other people two years ago, and I no longer open those roles, simply because AI lets my team cover that work without hiring anyone else.

And around me, young, well-qualified friends are searching for months, when five years ago they would have signed right away.

I thought it was just me. I looked at the numbers. It's real, and it's stranger than I expected.

So I figured I'd share a few things I think are important to know:

On the surface, everything's fine (in theory)

Swiss unemployment is very low. It hovers around 2 to 3%, one of the lowest in Europe (Swiss job guide, ibani).

If you stop there, you'd conclude nothing is happening. The problem is that this number hides what matters most.

Juniors can't find jobs, but they aren't being laid off

This is the point that surprised me most.

In Switzerland, job postings for recent graduates have dropped 32% compared with previous years (jobs.ch AI Report 2026). Someone under 30 now takes 3.2 months to find a job, versus 2 months a year earlier (2026 Job Market Barometer, Blick).

But here's the catch: young people account for only 2% of layoffs (same source, Blick).

So the problem isn't that they're being let go to be "replaced by AI". It's that they're no longer being hired. Beginner tasks, first-pass analysis, drafts, data entry: that's exactly what AI does well. As a result, the entry-level job, the one where people used to learn the ropes, is becoming rare. And it doesn't show up in the statistics, because a door that stays closed doesn't make any noise.

(The thing is, it's not easy to become senior without getting the chance to be junior first...)

Even tech isn't safe anymore

For years, people were told to go into tech. It was the safe bet.

Not anymore. swissstaffing puts it plainly: the labor shortage in tech is over. IT unemployment has even climbed above the Swiss average.

Meanwhile, jobs people said were under threat are doing very well. Electricians, carpenters, care workers: demand remains strong, because AI can't do their work.

The other half of the story is actually good

I don't want to leave you with only bad news, because that would be dishonest. There's a real upside.

In six years, job postings asking for AI skills have grown tenfold in Switzerland (PwC AI Jobs Barometer, via On Future). And the most telling part: for the same role, knowing how to use AI pays 56% more on average (PwC, via PME Magazine).

In other words, the market isn't shrinking. It's splitting in two. On one side, those who use AI and become more valuable. On the other, those who are on the receiving end of it.

What I take from this, without claiming to have the answer

There's a huge amount to say about this, and honestly every profession deserves its own deep dive, because AI plays a completely different role in each. I'm not going to pretend I have a ready-made solution.

But one thing seems clear to me:

the stakes are enormous, and that's exactly why it's worth understanding what AI is already doing, concretely, to see more clearly what it can and can't do.

The question that helps me, and might help you too, isn't "will AI take my role?" Nobody can answer that honestly.

It's more like:

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In my own job, what is it already doing instead of me, and what do I do that it can't?

The fear is real, and I'm not going to brush it aside. 41% of under-25s in Switzerland worry about becoming useless because of AI.

It's understandable.

But it rarely helps you see clearly.

Calmly looking at where you're exposed, and where you have an edge, helps a lot more.

Talk soon, Salim